欧洲杯买球


中央去庫存基調已定 樓市后續政策如何加碼

發布時間:2014-11-19

                                                        

juececengcifantiqukucun,shiwendingjingji,fangfanxitongxingfengxiandezhongyaojucuo。erxiayibudezhengceyeyingzhongdianguanzhugaokucundesansixianchengshi,congzengjiazhufangxuqiu、jiangdigoufangmenjianhejiangdifangqirongzinandu、jianshaotudigongyingdengduoguanqixia,wendingfangdichanshichang。

欧洲杯买球 21shijihongguanyanjiuyuanfenxishi jiruikun

teyuefenxishi geyiyao

ji11yue10ri,zhongyangcaijinglingdaoxiaozudishiyicihuiyishang,xijinpingzongshujishoucibiaotaiyaohuajiefangdichankucun,cujinfangdichanyechixufazhan。11yue11ri,guowuyuanchangwuhui yishanglikeqiangqiangdiaoyao“yijiakuaihujizhidugaigedaidongzhufangdengxiaofei”。12ri,zhongyangcaijinglingdaoxiaozubangongshizhurenliuhefujiangsudengdikaochashi,zaiciqiangdiao“huajiefangdichankucun”dewenti。

lianxujirizhongyangduiyuqukucundeqiangdiao,zaidangqianfangdichanshichangkucungaoqi、touzichixuxiahuadexingshixia,shifangchuqiangliedezhengcexinhao。

21shijihongguanyanjiuyuanduibiguojiatongjijujinnianyilaideshujuhe2013nianshuju,bingjiehegeditudishichangbiaoxianhezhengcezouxiangyanjiufaxian,juececengcifantiqukucun,shiwendingjing ji,fangfanxitongxingfengxiandezhongyaojucuo。erxiayibudezhengceyeyingzhongdianguanzhugaokucundesansixianchengshi,congzengjiazhufangxuqiu、jinyibujiangdigoufangmenjianhejiangdifangqirongzinandu、jianshaotudigongyingdeng duoguanqixia,wendingfangdichanshichang。

決策層為什么在這個時間點頻提去庫存?

欧洲杯买球 21shijihongguanyanjiuyuanrenwei,juececengcifantichuhuajieloushikucun,shiwendingjingji,fangfanxitongxingfengxiandezhongyaojucuo。

1.房地產投資增速持續下滑,創21個月來最低

欧洲杯买球 fangdichantouzishujuzai2014nianchujizhuanzhixia,bingchixuxiahua,jiezhidao2015nian10yuedeshuju,fangdichantouzidetongbizengsuyijingchuanglishixindi,tongbizengsujin2%。congquanguohedifangdeshujulaikan,fangdichantouzizengsudexiahuawuyituoleizhugudingzichantouzidezengsu,bingchengweiyingxianggdpdezhongyaoyinsuzhiyi。

2.房地產庫存仍在不斷攀升,且銷售增長出現疲態

jiezhidao10yuedi,quanguoshangpinfangdaishoumianji68632wanpingfangmi,bi9yuemozengjia2122wanpingfangmi,zaichuanglishixingao。

xiaoshouwuyishiqukucundezuizhijiedefangshi,danzuixindeshujuquebingbuleguanqieyixianxianchupiruandetaishi,1-10yueshangpinfangleijixiaoshoumianjihexiaoshouetongbifenbiezengchang7.2%he 14.9%,zhangfujiaoqian9yuefenbieshouzhai0.3he0.4gebaifendian。congdanyueqingkuanglaikan,zi7yueyilai,xiaoshoumianjitongbizengsuzaibuduanshouzhai,9yue(9.0%)、10yue (5.5%)detongbizengsujunyuandiyujin6geyue13.2%depingjunzengsu。

欧洲杯买球 zaifanguan2013nian,jiezhi2013nian9yuemo,quanguoshangpinfangdaishoumianji44636wanpingfangmi,yejiushishuo,liangnianyilai,quanguodaishoumianjizengjiale23996wanpingfangmi,shangzhangle54%。

3.賣地收入驟降,加劇地方債務危機

jinnian1-10yue,fangdichankaifaqiyetudigouzhimianji17847wanpingfangmi,tongbixiajiang33.8%;tudichengjiaojiakuan5794yiyuan,xiajiang25.2%,zheyeshishijinianlaihanjiandedimi。

tudishourudechixuxiahuajiangjiajudifangzhengfudezhaiwuweiji,zaifangdichantouzixiahuazhishi,jichusheshitouzichengweiduichongfangdichantouzixiahuawendinghongguanjingjidezhongyaofama,danshihenduodifangquemianlinwuqianxiyinshehuizibenjinrudexianzhuang。zaiquebaodijiahefangfanjinrongfengxiandebeijingxia,difangzhengfuzhinengshousuotudigongyingyiwendijia。

4.房地產去庫存成為經濟痛點,關系金融體系風險

21shijihongguanyanjiuyuanrenwei,heciqianfangdichantouzichixuzengchangladonghongguanjingjizengchangdequshibutong,dangqiandefangdichantouziwuyichengweituoleigudingzichantouzi,naizhihongguanjingjizengchangdetongdian。

lingyifangmian,loushidegaokucunyejianggeijinrongtixidailaifengxian。zhongsuozhouzhi,woguoyinxingyeduifangdichandiyawuyouhenqiangdeyilaixing,kaifadai、gerenfangdai、zhengfupingtaidai,jibendouyibudongchanzuoweidiyawu,shenzhilianputonggongsidaikuanhexiaoweiqiyedaikuandediyawuyeduoweibudongchan。

2012nianshangbannian,quanguoyinxingyedaikuanbulianglvwei0.94%,2013nianlveyouzengchang,2014nianyilaikaishijiasuzengchang,zhijinnianqiansanjiduda1.59%。

下一步去庫存政策將往何處去?

jianyudangqianzhongguoderenkouliudong,loushigongxuguanxizhuangkuang,renkoujingliuchudesansixianchengshiwuyishigaokucundezhongdianquyu。yixiadezhengcefangxiangyejiangzhuyaozhenduiloushikucunjiaoyanzhongdesansixianchengshi,erfeihuobaodeyixianchengshi。

1.增加住房需求

欧洲杯买球 21shijihongguanyanjiuyuanrenwei,zengjiazhufangxuqiushiwendingzhufangxiaofeideyigezhongyaojucuo,weilaizengjiazhufangxuqiujiangconglituinongmingong、waijirenshi、shougoucunliangshangpinfangweibaozhangfangpinleizhongfali。

欧洲杯买球 (1)hujizhidugaigeladongzhufangxiaofei:falidianweilituinongmingonggoufang

nenggouladongsansixiangoufangxiaofeidezhuliquntiwuyishinongmingong,zhichinongmingoufangshituijinxinxingchengzhenhuadexuyao,yeshixiaohuashangpinfangkucundeyouxiaocuoshi。yeyinci,anhui、henan、hebeidengrenkoudashengdouzaiyanjiuchutaicujinnongminjinchenggoufangdejilizhengcehezhichicuoshi。

欧洲杯买球 (2)shougoucunliangshangpinfangweibaozhangfanghuozhepenghuquzhufang

欧洲杯买球 zaifangdichankaifatouzizengsuchixuzoudidebeijingxia,guowuyuanjuedingjinyibuqianghuachengzhenpenghuqugaizao,bingtichushishisannianxingdongjihua,gaizaoguimokongqian,jiadapenggailiduwuyijiangzaiyi dingchengduduichongfangdichantouzixiahuaduishangxiayouchanyeyijihongguanjingjidailaidefumianyingxiang,datongshangpinfanghebaozhangfangdetongdao,shougoucunliangshangpinfangweibaozhangfangyeshijiejuefangdichankucun,wendingtouzidezhong yaofangxiang。

(3)gediluxuquxiaoxianwailing

8yue27ri,liubuweilianhefawenxuanbudiaozhengfangdichanshichangwaizizhunruheguanlizhengce。tongzhimingqueleyouzigedejingwaijigouhegerenkezaizhongguojingneigoufang。zheshi “xianwailing”zi2006nianbanbuyilai,shoucizaiquanguofanweineisongbang。niandi,gedijiangluxuchutailuoshizhengce。

2.進一步降低購房門檻,出臺刺激性的政策刺激住房消費

欧洲杯买球 (1)houxugoufangdeshoufubilijifangdaichengbenyouwangjinyibujiangdi

欧洲杯买球 zi2014nian11yueyilai,yangxingyiliucijiangxi,siciquanmianjiangzhun。genju6cijiangxigoufanganzhaojizhunlilvjisuan,baiwan20nianlixijianshaofudugaoda22.57wan。

ciwai,goufangdeshoufubilijinyibujiangdi,yejiangduitishengfangdichanshichangxiaoshoureduqidaojijiyingxiang。ciqiande9yue30ri,zhujianbuheyangxinglianhefawenchengfeixiangouchengshideshoufujiangdidao25%。

(2)difangjiangjixujiadaduizhufanggongjijindesongbang,tigaogongjijindeshiyongxiaolv。

欧洲杯买球 (3)putongzhuzhaibiaozhundiaozheng,jiangdishuifei

(4)houxusansixianchengshihuoluxuchutaigoufangjianmianshuifei+butiexingdezhengce

suiranpoyouzhengyi,danshijianmianshuifeijibutiexingdezhengcejiangshidifangzhengfukeyizhijiechutai,huanjiedifangxiaoshoukunjingdezuizhijieshouduan,genju21shijihongguanyanjiuyuandebuwanquantongji,muqianyiyouchao20gexianshiluodilejianmianshuifei+butiexingdezhengce,biruzhengzhou、changshadeng。

3.降低房企融資難度,減少土地供應防范地方經濟和金融體系風險

欧洲杯买球 (1)jiangdifangqirongzinandu,xitongjiejuefangqidezijinwenti

jiejuekaifashangdezijinwenti,shifangfandifangfangdichanjingjifengxiandezhongyaofangshi,sanlunquanmianjiangzhunhou,zi4yueqifangdichankaifaqiyedaoweizijinleijitongbijiangfuzhuyueshouzhai,zhi6yuezhuanjiangweizeng。1-9yue,daoweizijinwei90653yiyuan,tongbizengchang0.9%。

weilaihuobizhengcehuanjiangyoujinyibufangsongdekongjian,fangdichankaifaqiyezijinyalijiangjinyibuhuanjie,qiekaifashangderongziyejianggengduoyuanhua,jin10yuejiuyou12jiaqiyefabuneidigongsizhaihuofeigongkaifaxinggupiao,mujizijinedadaole470yi。

欧洲杯买球 (2)yasuogaokucunquyudetudigongying

zheyeshijianshaokucundefangshi,qieyekeyishixianwendijiadexiaoguo,fangfanyindijiadadiejiajudifangzhaiwuyali。


 

 

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